For travel managers, a new year doesn’t just bring a new budget; it brings a whole new set of business travel challenges and opportunities to navigate.
That’s where we come in. We’ve analysed the emerging trends, cost pressures, and risk factors so you can focus on building a resilient, cost-effective, and successful travel program.
Here’s a breakdown of what you need to know to help guide you through the world of business travel in 2026.
The global economy: Slow growth, steady resilience
Let’s start with the economic outlook. The global economy is heading toward its weakest expansion year since 2009 (excluding the pandemic year), with growth expected to settle around 2.6%.
While that might sound a little sober, the global economy has actually shown incredible resilience.
However, we see two primary “twin risks” that every travel manager should keep an eye on:
- Trade uncertainty: Tariffs are higher than a year ago, which means this volatility can ripple through global supply chains and influence the relative cost of doing business internationally.
- Geopolitical tensions: Conflicts in Europe and the Middle East continue to cause sudden and widespread travel disruption.
The Six-Point Risk Landscape
Keeping your travellers safe and operations resilient is paramount. Here are the six primary risks that will require new strategies:
- Extreme Weather: Severe weather events are no longer confined to historically vulnerable regions and are increasingly hitting major business hubs.
Action: Plan for seasonal weather volatility and provide seamless, robust traveller support when disruption occurs. - Regional Tensions: Airspace closures can happen with little warning, stranding travellers and forcing long, costly detours.
Action: Track travellers and implement scenario-based contingency plans to keep travellers safe - Cross-border travel: International travel rules are becoming a minefield to navigate – from ETIAS digital pre-authorisation systems to visa integrity fees and technology restrictions.
Action: Partner with specialists who communicate new requirements proactively to reduce traveller friction. - Digital Downsides: The increasing spread of AI-generated misinformation makes it harder to spot reliable facts during a crisis.
Action: Work closely with your IT security team and maintain strong integrity protocols. - Health: Local health outbreaks are an ongoing threat.
Action: Include health advisories in your travel process and introduce policies to improve traveller wellbeing. - Mega events: Large scale events like the FIFA World Cup in North America cause capacity constraints, which increase travel costs.
Action: Plan well in advance and consider adjusting non-essential travel to these destinations.
2026 Rate Forecast
Managing the bottom line is always a critical focus area. Here is our outlook for average prices for air, hotel, and ground transportation in the year ahead:
1. Air Travel: Fares remain fairly stable:
Air travel demand is growing modestly, with global Average Ticket Prices (ATPs) rising by only about 1.1% overall. But this low global figure masks variation. For example, pressure will be highest in Africa (2.5%) and Asia (2.0%). Meanwhile, North American fares are expected to be only 0.4% higher year over year. Intercontinental travel will see higher average increases (2.3%) than regional travel (0.9%).
Also, be aware that fuel surcharges — often renamed as a “YR carrier-imposed surcharge” – which can constitute a significant portion (20-30%) of the total cost of an intercontinental ticket.
2. Hotel Rates: Strong demand in key cities
Average Daily Rates (ADR) will continue to see strong regional variations driven by high demand and rising operational costs.
While many European markets will see modest increases, key hubs like Switzerland are expected to secure rate increases up to 10.5% due to the enduring strength of executive travel and the popularity of ‘bleisure’ trips. In the U.S., ADRs are expected to rise by a modest 2.0%, though some localised markets, like Colombia, are facing inflationary effects that could push rates up to 8.5%.
Lastly, we expect Asia Pacific ADRs to rise by an aggregate of 5.0%. Northeast Asia is a key driver, with strong increases in China (7%) and Japan (6%) due to recovering international leisure and business travel.
3. Car Rental: The seller’s market persists
It remains a seller’s market globally. Corporate customers should generally expect contract renewals to come in with rate increases in the 2-4% range. Rental companies are facing higher acquisition and repair costs, which they will offset through higher pricing. Furthermore, watch out for the growing trend of adding city surcharges at popular destinations and across entire states in the U.S.
The Sustainability Shift: From pledges to proof
When we look at sustainability, the focus has completely shifted from vague promises to proof and accountability. Your travel program now needs to get serious about high-quality emissions reporting, especially for your Scope 3 travel-related emissions, because global regulations are now demanding it.
The days of “greenwashing” are over. If you’re not transparent, you’re risking both public scrutiny and regulatory fines. On a positive note, we’re seeing AI being used for things like smart emissions tracking, supplier analysis, and route optimisation to support the process. Crucially, corporate buyers now have a massive role in driving the market—you can actually influence the wider adoption of clean energy solutions like Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and electric vehicles just by making smart supplier choices.
Wrapping up
So, the world is absolutely open for business, but let’s be real: managing all this emerging risk and cost pressure needs a more sophisticated, proactive game plan than ever before.
Whether you need the absolute latest data on airfare and insights into regional hotel hotspots, or practical help implementing a sustainability program that meets these tough new global standards, we’ve got your back. The goal is to help you navigate 2026 with total confidence.
Reach out to your dedicated Rennies BCD team today, and let’s start building your resilient, cost-effective, and sustainable travel strategy for the year ahead.